FC Anyang 1-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Anyang lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.990 / defence 1.179 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.289 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.154. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 FC Anyang games / 50 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 27% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Daejeon Citizen 2.00. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 27% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Anyang 1.23 / Daejeon Citizen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.990 / def 1.179 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.289 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Daejeon Citizen xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
FC Anyang 1 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 27% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (1 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 0 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Daejeon Citizen away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.99) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.29x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 17/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
27%
3.74
23%
4.26
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.98
1.75
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.74
27%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
5%
21.60
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Daejeon Citizen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Daejeon Citizen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 1-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.75 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.29 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 27% | Draw 23% | Daejeon Citizen 50%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.