Daejeon Citizen 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Suwon City FC make the trip to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to face Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 08:40 UTC.

Form

Daejeon Citizen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Suwon City FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Daejeon Citizen against 1.10 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daejeon Citizen lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Suwon City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 63% versus Suwon City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 57% | Suwon City FC 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.76 xG and Suwon City FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.039 / defence 1.129 | Suwon City FC attack 0.996 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Daejeon Citizen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Daejeon Citizen games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 3.70. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 60% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

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