NEOM 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC meet at King Khalid Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games (2.25 PPG). Last five: L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEOM have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.25 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
NEOM half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 50% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEOM 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.812 / defence 0.979 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.498. Data: 4 NEOM games / 38 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 45%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.22. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: NEOM 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG NEOM 1.07 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.812 / def 0.979 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.973 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
NEOM 1 - 3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 28% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NEOM's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.97x) against NEOM's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
28%
3.54
26%
3.77
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
NEOM xG
Total xG
2.50
1.43
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for NEOM and 1.43 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, NEOM have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 3W 0D 1L record — L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NEOM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.25 PPG for NEOM against 2.50 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEOM are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking output running into NEOM's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEOM have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
NEOM
0
Draws
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 3 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when NEOM 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEOM 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for NEOM and 75% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NEOM's games and 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NEOM's matches and 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do NEOM and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEOM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat NEOM 1-3 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 45%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEOM 2.25 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. NEOM shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.