Damac 2-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Fayha meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 December 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Damac. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al-Fayha (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Damac, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Al-Fayha — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Damac a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.152 / defence 1.019 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.238. Data: 46 Damac games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 4.55. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 60% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Damac 1.65 / Al-Fayha 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.152 / def 1.019 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Damac (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Damac vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:10 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Damac vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Fayha part of?
Damac vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 53% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Damac and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Record (6 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Damac's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Damac's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.07
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Damac xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Damac and 0.96 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 19L across 46 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Damac against 1.11 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 8D 6L from 23 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 7D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.11 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Fayha away?
Damac's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Damac
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Fayha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Fayha 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Damac) and 61% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Damac's games and 70% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Damac's recent games and 61% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Damac and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.65 xG and Al-Fayha 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 22%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.