Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.70 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Al Taawon's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 47% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.978 / defence 0.899 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.415 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.304. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Al Taawon games / 58 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Taawon 1.53 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.978 / def 0.899 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.415 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Taawon 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.42x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
36%
2.81
23%
4.27
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.19
1.66
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.66 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 18D 15L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 48W 6D 4L from 58 games, 2.59 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.72 PPG from 29 outings (14W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 4D 3L from 29 away games — 2.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.95 scored and 0.88 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking output running into Al Taawon's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 25W 18D 15L in their last 58 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 48W 6D 4L in their last 58 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.72 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 on 12 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Taawon
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Al Taawon and 76% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Taawon's games and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al Taawon's matches and 76% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taawon 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.42 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 40%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.