Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 82% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al-Adalah meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Adalah's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.22 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al Shabab's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Adalah's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Al-Adalah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Shabab winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al-Adalah 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al-Adalah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.66 xG and Al-Adalah 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.188 / defence 0.634 | Al-Adalah attack 0.682 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.219. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.634 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Al Shabab games / 18 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 82% | Draw 13% | Al-Adalah 5%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.22 | Draw 7.69 | Al-Adalah 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (82%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 82% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 20% | Al-Adalah 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 82% | Draw 13% | Al-Adalah 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 38% | xG Al Shabab 2.66 / Al-Adalah 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.188 / def 0.634 | Al-Adalah attack 0.682 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Al-Adalah xG
38%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 82% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Adalah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.19x the league average against Al-Adalah's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.68x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
82%
1.21
13%
7.90
5%
20.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.19
0.53
Al-Adalah xG
1.21
82%
Home win
7.90
13%
Draw
20.04
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
7%
14.28
Win to Nil
49%
2.06
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.53 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 12W 4D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah's form line: 3W 4D 11L from 18 games, 0.72 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.56 PPG from 9 outings (7W 2D 0L).
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Adalah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.78 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 12W 4D 2L in their last 18 games (2.22 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.56 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
0
Draws
1
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Al Shabab 1-2 Al-Adalah.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Al Shabab) and 44% (Al-Adalah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Shabab) and 56% (Al-Adalah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 78% of their matches; Al-Adalah in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 44% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Shabab's matches and 56% of Al-Adalah's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Adalah defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.66 xG and Al-Adalah 0.53 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Adalah outscored their 0.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.19 / defence 0.63 against Al-Adalah attack 0.68 / defence 1.53, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 82% | Draw 13% | Al-Adalah 5%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a Al-Adalah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 5% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al-Adalah 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Al-Adalah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.