Al Shabab 2-0 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al Shabab welcome Abha to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Al Shabab) versus 1.80 (Abha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 1 for Abha and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Abha trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 52% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 59% | Abha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.99 xG and Abha 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.190 / defence 0.682 | Abha attack 0.981 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.151. Al Shabab's defence rating of 0.682 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al Shabab games / 46 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 66% | Draw 20% | Abha 14%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Abha 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 20% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 66% | Draw 20% | Abha 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Shabab 1.99 / Abha 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.190 / def 0.682 | Abha attack 0.981 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Abha xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Abha kick off?
Al Shabab vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 14 February 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Al Shabab 2 - 0 Abha.
Where is Al Shabab vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Abha part of?
Al Shabab vs Abha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 66% chance of winning, Abha a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Shabab and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 1 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Abha (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.19) and Abha's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.88
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.76
0.77
Abha xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
2%
53.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.77 for Abha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 26W 14D 6L from 46 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 21L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 15W 7D 1L from 23 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Abha's away record stands at 5W 3D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Abha in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 26W 14D 6L in their last 46 games (2.00 PPG), while Abha have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Abha away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.26 PPG; Abha away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Abha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2024, when Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Abha?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 39%, Abha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Shabab) and 52% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Abha in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 52% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Shabab's recent games and 52% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Abha tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Abha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Abha 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.99 xG and Abha 0.77 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.19 / defence 0.68 against Abha attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 66% | Draw 20% | Abha 14%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 59%, Abha 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Abha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.