Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 home games — 0.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Raed's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 55% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.16 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.812 / defence 1.321 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.438. Data: 65 Al-Raed games / 65 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Raed 1.16 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.812 / def 1.321 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.151 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 15 May 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Raed 1 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
19%
5.18
20%
5.01
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.35
2.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
5.18
19%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
11%
8.91
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
2%
46.16
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.19 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed come into this having played 65 games, going 15W 13D 37L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.97 PPG from 65 outings (39W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Raed's home form reads 7W 6D 19L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.66 points per game from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.08 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 66%.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 15W 13D 37L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 39W 11D 15L in their last 65 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.84 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Raed) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 31%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Raed's games and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Raed's matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 1-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.16 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.19 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 61%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.