Al Orubah 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al-Jouf University Stadium to face Al Orubah in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Al Orubah (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Al Orubah have gone 2W 0D 4L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Al Orubah in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Al Orubah — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Orubah 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 27%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.59 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.526 / defence 1.320 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.078 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.443. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.526 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Al Orubah games / 15 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Orubah 0.59 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.526 / def 1.320 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.078 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
39%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Orubah 0 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 10% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 72% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Orubah's attack at 0.53x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.08x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-3 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
10%
10.50
19%
5.34
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
0 – 3
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.64
2.05
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
10.50
10%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
13%
7.79
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
1%
81.84
40%
2.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Al Orubah and 2.05 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 4W 1D 10L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form line: 10W 1D 4L from 15 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Orubah have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L).
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Orubah are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.47 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 27%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 10W 1D 4L in their last 15 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2025, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Al Orubah) and 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Orubah) and 83% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Orubah keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%; Al Orubah have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al Orubah's matches and 83% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Orubah 0-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.59 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.53 / defence 1.32 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 10% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 60%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.