Al Okhdood 2-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium: 0W 0D 6L from 6 Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.70 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 42% and Al-Hazm 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 42% | Al-Hazm 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.22 xG and Al-Hazm 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.571 / defence 1.192 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.375. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.571 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al Okhdood games / 12 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 33% | Al-Hazm 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Okhdood 1.22 / Al-Hazm 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.571 / def 1.192 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Hazm xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Al Okhdood 2 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 32% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.57) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.85x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.66
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
Al-Hazm xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.39 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 1D 9L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.58 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.00 PPG from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L). That actually lags their 0.58 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.17 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hazm's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 33%, Al-Hazm 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 67% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al Okhdood's games and 83% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Okhdood's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Hazm 2-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.22 xG and Al-Hazm 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.19 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.37, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 40%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Okhdood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 42%, Al-Hazm 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.58 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.