Al-Hazm 1-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Al Wehda Club at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al Wehda Club make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Wehda Club have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Wehda Club are 0.60 PPG clear of Al-Hazm in recent Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Wehda Club in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 82% and Al Wehda Club 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hazm 64% | Al Wehda Club 82%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 2.02 xG and Al Wehda Club 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.003 / defence 1.574 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.914 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.409. Al Wehda Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al-Hazm games / 41 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 39% | Draw 21% | Al Wehda Club 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.56 | Draw 4.76 | Al Wehda Club 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 80% | Al Wehda Club 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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