Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Al-Ettifaq.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al-Ettifaq at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:40 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ettifaq's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Okhdood) versus 1.10 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Okhdood's games and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's (from Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2024, ended Al Okhdood 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 56% | Al-Ettifaq 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Al-Ettifaq have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.00 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.788 / defence 1.106 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.334. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 52 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 52.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.36 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Ettifaq 1.91. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 away games).

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