Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Fayha travel to Al-Awwal Park to take on Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Friday 7 February 2025 at 15:20 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Nassr stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Nassr at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Fayha away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2024, ended Al-Nassr 4–1 Al-Fayha — a Al-Nassr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Fayha trading profile (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 69% and Al-Fayha 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 75% | Al-Fayha 52%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 80% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.169 / defence 0.841 | Al-Fayha attack 0.904 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.349. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 52 games and Al-Fayha's last 52.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.79 | Draw 4.36 | Al-Fayha 4.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 15:20 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.82 / Al-Fayha 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.169 / def 0.841 | Al-Fayha attack 0.904 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:20 UK time on Friday 7 February 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 52 games and Al-Fayha's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.84
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.03 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 52 games, going 37W 9D 6L for 2.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (14W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 17W 6D 3L across their last 26 home games, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.12 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 37W 9D 6L in their last 52 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Fayha.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 69%, Al-Fayha at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Nassr and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Nassr's games and 73% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Nassr's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 77% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 21%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 75%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.