Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Nassr at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 10W 0D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 2.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 3 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 51% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.99 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.743 / defence 1.041 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.733 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.391. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.743 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.733 — the away xG of 2.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Al-Nassr games / 61 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 3.33 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 2.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG Al-Nassr 1.99 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.743 / def 1.041 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.733 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
80%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 30% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 49% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.74x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 2.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.0%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
30%
3.30
20%
4.88
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 3
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
4.50
2.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.01
Clean Sheet
8%
12.28
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
2%
40.49
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 2.51 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 45W 9D 7L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 46W 10D 5L from 61 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.36 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.47 PPG from 30 outings (23W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 5D 3L from 30 away games — 2.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.44 scored and 0.80 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 45W 9D 7L in their last 61 games (2.36 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 10D 5L in their last 61 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.47 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Nassr and 57% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 40% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Nassr's matches and 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.99 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 xG, a combined 4.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.74 / defence 1.04 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.73 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 30% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 70%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.36 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.