Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.

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Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Nassr have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Fateh's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Nassr, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Al-Fateh — Al-Fateh have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Al-Nassr 5–0 Al-Fateh — a Al-Nassr win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 49% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Fateh 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.00 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.398 / defence 0.895 | Al-Fateh attack 1.037 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.425. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.398 — their 2.00 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 49 games and Al-Fateh's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.89 | Draw 4.52 | Al-Fateh 4.01. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 away games).

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