Abha 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Abha welcome Al Taawon to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 15 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.60 conceded. However, 3.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Al Taawon's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Abha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Abha have won 1, Al Taawon 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 59% and Al Taawon 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 69% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.11 xG and Al Taawon 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.899 / defence 1.277 | Al Taawon attack 1.089 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.414. Data: 49 Abha games / 49 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 57%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taawon 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Abha 60% | Al Taawon 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Abha 1.11 / Al Taawon 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.899 / def 1.277 | Al Taawon attack 1.089 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al Taawon xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Abha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 15 February 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Taawon?
Abha 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Abha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Taawon part of?
Abha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 21% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Abha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Abha and Al Taawon in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.90) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
21%
4.78
22%
4.52
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Abha xG
Total xG
3.08
1.97
Al Taawon xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
3%
34.16
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Abha and 1.97 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Abha's recent record stands at 14W 5D 30L from 49 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 12L across 49 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Abha have managed 11W 4D 9L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 14W 5D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.59 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 14W 5D 30L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 26W 11D 12L in their last 49 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.54 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al Taawon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2024, when Abha 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 67%, Al Taawon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Abha) and 46% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 58% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Abha's matches and 46% of Al Taawon's.
Do Abha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Abha and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.11 xG and Al Taawon 1.97 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.90 / defence 1.28 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 21% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 57%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 69%, Al Taawon 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.