Al Najma 2-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Najma's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 7L from 7 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 0D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 2.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al Najma half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 71% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 71% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.614 / defence 1.036 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.486 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.514. Al Najma's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Al Najma games / 41 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 10% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 10.00 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Al Najma 33% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 10% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Najma 0.80 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.614 / def 1.036 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.486 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
50%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 November 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Najma 2 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 10% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-7L in 7 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Najma's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.49x) against Al Najma's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-3 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
10%
9.54
18%
5.41
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.13
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.54
10%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
10%
10.28
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
1%
98.07
32%
3.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.33 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Al Najma have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 7L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 5W 2D 0L from 7 games, 2.43 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 2.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Najma have posted 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Najma are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.57 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 7L in their last 7 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 2D 0L in their last 7 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Al Najma or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Najma have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Al Najma) and 33% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Najma) and 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67%; Al Najma have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Najma's recent matches and 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Najma's recent games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Najma and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Najma 2-4 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Najma beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.04 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.49 / defence 0.84, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 10% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.