Al Kholood 5-1 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al Kholood welcome Al Najma to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 16:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have recorded 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Al Najma in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 75% and Al Najma 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 75% | Al Najma 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.90 xG and Al Najma 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.030 / defence 0.943 | Al Najma attack 0.800 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.446. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Al Kholood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Al Kholood games / 4 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al Najma 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al Najma 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 16:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Kholood 1.90 / Al Najma 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.030 / def 0.943 | Al Najma attack 0.800 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Najma xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Najma kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Najma kicked off at 16:10 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Najma?
Al Kholood 5 - 1 Al Najma.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Najma part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 56% chance of winning, Al Najma a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Najma in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (1.03) and Al Najma's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.48
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.99
1.09
Al Najma xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
3%
30.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.09 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Najma, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 4L across 4 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Kholood by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al Najma in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Early Season
Al Najma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Kholood
0
Draws
1
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 1, Al Najma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al Najma 2-1 Al Kholood.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Kholood at 75%, Al Najma at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Kholood and 75% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Kholood's games and 75% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Kholood's matches and 75% of Al Najma's.
Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Najma 5-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.90 xG and Al Najma 1.09 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Al Najma attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 56% | Draw 22% | Al Najma 22%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 75%, Al Najma 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al Najma's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.