Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Kholood, 1 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 65% | Al-Fayha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.60 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.076 / defence 1.232 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 45 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Kholood 1.60 / Al-Fayha 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.076 / def 1.232 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 43% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.39
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.27 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 9D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (10W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.05 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Kholood and 57% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Fayha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Kholood's matches and 57% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.