Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 16:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.40 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 3 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 57% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Fateh 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.859 / defence 1.039 | Al-Fateh attack 0.910 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.303. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 60 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.63 / Al-Fateh 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.859 / def 1.039 | Al-Fateh attack 0.910 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:35 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 5 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 46% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.02
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.86
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 16D 26L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 7W 9D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
6
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Khaleej Saihat at 53%, Al-Fateh at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 73% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 77% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 73% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fateh attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.