Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad FC at 2.00 PPG versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 68% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.974 / defence 0.950 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.841 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.539. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Al-Ittihad FC games / 41 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.974 / def 0.950 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.841 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.24
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.23
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.23 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 29W 7D 5L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 24W 8D 9L from 41 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 2.29 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.60 PPG from 20 outings (17W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 12W 2D 6L from 20 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.90 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 7D 5L in their last 41 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 24W 8D 9L in their last 41 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.60 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 35% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Ittihad FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.84 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 39%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 61%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.29 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.