Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 14:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 10W 0D 0L at Kingdom Arena — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Ettifaq 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.447 / defence 0.788 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.286. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 43 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 4.55. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 / Al-Ettifaq 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.447 / def 0.788 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.987 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.99x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.14
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
24.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.00 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 39W 4D 0L from 43 games, a 2.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 14L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 20W 1D 0L from 21 games — 2.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.91 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.19 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 4D 0L in their last 43 games (2.81 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.90 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Ettifaq 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 29% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 38%; Al-Ettifaq in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.45 / defence 0.79 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%, Al-Ettifaq 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.81 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.