Al-Fayha 0-1 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Orubah to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 November 2024 at 14:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Orubah stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 0.70 PPG versus Al Orubah's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al Orubah trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 36% versus Al Orubah 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 36% | Al Orubah 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al Orubah 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.825 / defence 1.202 | Al Orubah attack 0.849 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.236. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 11 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 22% | Al Orubah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al Orubah 4.17. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Orubah 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Nov 2024, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 22% | Al Orubah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fayha 1.97 / Al Orubah 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.825 / def 1.202 | Al Orubah attack 0.849 / def 1.647 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Al Orubah xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 54% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Orubah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Al Orubah (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.82x the league average against Al Orubah's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.57
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.23
1.26
Al Orubah xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
3%
29.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.26 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 4D 6L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Orubah's form line: 3W 1D 7L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 0.64 PPG, Al Orubah on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.91 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Fayha's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.80 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Orubah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al Orubah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Orubah 2-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Orubah?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 40%, Al Orubah 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Al-Fayha and 100% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 40% of games; Al Orubah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 60% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al-Fayha's matches and 100% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al Orubah 1.26 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.82 / defence 1.20 against Al Orubah attack 0.85 / defence 1.65, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 54% | Draw 22% | Al Orubah 24%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 36%, Al Orubah 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Orubah's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 0.64 PPG, Al Orubah 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.