Al-Fayha 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Fayha take on Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.30 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fayha have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fayha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 51% | Al Okhdood 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.86 xG and Al Okhdood 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.732 / defence 0.791 | Al Okhdood attack 0.708 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.457. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Okhdood's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Al-Fayha games / 65 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 34% | Al Okhdood 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al Okhdood 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Al Okhdood's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 34% | Al Okhdood 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Al-Fayha 0.86 / Al Okhdood 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.732 / def 0.791 | Al Okhdood attack 0.708 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al Okhdood xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.73x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
34%
2.92
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.68
0.82
Al Okhdood xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 15.2 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.82 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 65 games, going 18W 23D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.94 PPG from 65 outings (16W 13D 36L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.18 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 8W 13D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.00 points per game from 32 outings (8W 8D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.95 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 18W 23D 24L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 16W 13D 36L in their last 65 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.16 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al Okhdood 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Al-Fayha) and 41% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 44% of games; Al Okhdood in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 41% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 41% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.86 xG and Al Okhdood 0.82 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.73 / defence 0.79 against Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 0.77, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 34% | Al Okhdood 32%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 51%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.