Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al Okhdood.

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Match Analysis

Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fayha's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.30 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Al-Fayha 2–1 Al Okhdood — a Al-Fayha win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Okhdood trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 65% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 62% | Al Okhdood 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.45 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.835 / defence 1.176 | Al Okhdood attack 0.684 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.476. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 56 games and Al Okhdood's last 26.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.35 | Draw 3.69 | Al Okhdood 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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