Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Abha face Al-Fateh.

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Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Abha in Pro League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Abha's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Abha have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Al-Fateh (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Fateh edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Abha 1–4 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Abha half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 57% versus Al-Fateh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 66% | Al-Fateh 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.19 xG and Al-Fateh 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.846 / defence 1.398 | Al-Fateh attack 1.110 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.476. Abha's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Abha's last 56 games and Al-Fateh's last 56.

Result probabilities: Abha 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 62%. Fair-value odds: Abha 5.46 | Draw 4.98 | Al-Fateh 1.62. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.19 / 2.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 away games).

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