Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Al-Fayha's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 45% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.014 / defence 0.958 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.381 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Al-Fayha games / 67 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.89. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.14 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.014 / def 0.958 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.381 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 23% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.38x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
23%
4.44
24%
4.10
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.99
1.85
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.44
23%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
4%
28.24
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.85 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 18W 20D 29L from 67 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 47W 15D 5L across 67 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 11W 12D 10L from 33 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 21W 9D 3L across 33 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.67 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 18W 20D 29L in their last 67 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 47W 15D 5L in their last 67 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.36 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Fayha) and 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 33%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Al-Fayha's games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.14 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.74, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.