Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.80 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Hazm and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Hazm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.39 xG and Al-Hazm 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.006 / defence 1.179 | Al-Hazm attack 0.795 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 45 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 36% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.39 / Al-Hazm 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.006 / def 1.179 | Al-Hazm attack 0.795 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Hazm xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Al-Hazm xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.34 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 11W 13D 21L from 45 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 19L across 45 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.02 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-2 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 59%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 54% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fayha's games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 54% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.