Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Khaleej Saihat are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al Khaleej Saihat 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 63% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.39 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / defence 1.194 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.014 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.262. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh dominate the H2H record, yet Al Khaleej Saihat are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fateh 1.39 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / def 1.194 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.014 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 35% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.95) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
35%
2.88
25%
4.06
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.92
1.53
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.53 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 11D 19L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.16 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.07 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 6, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 67%, Al Khaleej Saihat 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fateh) and 38% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Fateh's games and 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 38% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.39 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 63%, Al Khaleej Saihat 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.16 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.