Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Al-Fayha — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:35 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Al-Fayha's (from Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Al-Fayha have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Fateh.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2024, ended Al-Fateh 2–2 Al-Fayha — a draw.

Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al-Fayha 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al-Fayha 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.987 / defence 1.215 | Al-Fayha attack 0.808 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.274. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 42 games and Al-Fayha's last 42.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.33 | Draw 3.94 | Al-Fayha 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al-Fayha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 60% (last 10 away games).

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