Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at EGO Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at EGO Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at EGO Stadium this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / defence 1.211 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.392 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.314. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Al-Ettifaq games / 60 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.15 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / def 1.211 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.392 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.39x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
19%
5.32
20%
5.07
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.37
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.32
19%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
11%
9.17
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
2%
48.78
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.22 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 22W 18D 20L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 49W 6D 5L across 60 games — 2.55 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 9W 7D 13L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 22W 4D 3L across 29 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.90 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 49W 6D 5L in their last 60 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Al-Ettifaq and 72% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 72% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.15 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.21 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.