Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to EGO Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Monday 20 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Ettifaq at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Al-Ettifaq 2–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 41% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.800 / defence 1.391 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.438. Al-Ettifaq's defence rating of 1.391 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 49 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.40 | Draw 4.49 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.800 / def 1.391 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 20 January 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.80) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 49 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
19%
5.40
22%
4.49
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.81
1.87
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.40
19%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
35.02
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.87 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 12L across 49 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 7D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 10W 5D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.84 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2026: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 58% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 58% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 71% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.