Damac 0-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Damac's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Damac have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Ettifaq in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Damac 2W, Al-Ettifaq 3W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.33 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.116 / defence 1.004 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.917 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.466. Data: 48 Damac games / 48 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 37%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Damac 1.33 / Al-Ettifaq 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.116 / def 1.004 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.917 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:30 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 0 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in?
Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.12) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.92x) against Damac's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.86
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Damac xG
Total xG
2.68
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Damac and 1.35 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 14D 19L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.31 PPG from 48 outings (16W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Damac against 1.31 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Damac's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 58%, Al-Ettifaq 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Damac) and 33% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 38%; Al-Ettifaq in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Damac's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Damac's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 0-3 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.33 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 37% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.23 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.