Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 15:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1.20 for Al-Raed — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Raed 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Raed 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Raed 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74 xG and Al-Raed 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / defence 0.934 | Al-Raed attack 1.041 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.286. Data: 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 43 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 3.70. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74 / Al-Raed 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.085 / def 0.934 | Al-Raed attack 1.041 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Raed xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed kicked off at 15:20 on Friday 8 November 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 49% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.04x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.25
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.99
1.25
Al-Raed xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.25 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 10D 11L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 13W 5D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.10 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al-Raed 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 52% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Raed in 33%; Al-Raed in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 57% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 52% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Raed 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.74 xG and Al-Raed 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Al-Raed attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 27%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Raed 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.