Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 April 2025 at 17:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al-Fayha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Al-Fayha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Al-Fayha 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.406 / defence 0.999 | Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.305. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 61 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 4.00. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 / Al-Fayha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.406 / def 0.999 | Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:20 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 5 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.41) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.16
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.99
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.19 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 35W 12D 14L from 61 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 22L across 61 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 19W 7D 4L from 30 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 10W 9D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.07 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 35W 12D 14L in their last 61 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 17W 22D 22L in their last 61 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.13 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al-Fayha 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 60% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 63% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 5-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.80 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.41 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 25%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.