Abha 1-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to face Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Abha games / 34 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Abha 1.38 / Al-Hazm 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Hazm xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Abha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:15 on Thursday 13 August 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Abha 1 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Abha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Abha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Abha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Abha and Al-Hazm in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Abha's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.75
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Abha xG
Total xG
2.79
1.41
Al-Hazm xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Abha and 1.41 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hazm?
From 5 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Abha 1-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Abha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Abha 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.