Abha 0-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Faisaly FC at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 outings — a 0.22 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Pro League appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 2D 2L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.22 PPG (Abha) versus 0.70 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Abha, 1 for Al-Faisaly FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Abha 56% and Al-Faisaly FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 56% | Al-Faisaly FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.28 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.738 / defence 1.096 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.432. Abha's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Abha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Abha games / 10 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Faisaly FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 67% | Al-Faisaly FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 12:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Abha 1.28 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.738 / def 1.096 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.846 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Faisaly FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 12:40 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Abha 0 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 33% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Abha and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Abha (all comps): 0W-2D-7L in 9 | 0.22 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.14
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Abha xG
Total xG
2.61
1.33
Al-Faisaly FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Abha and 1.33 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Abha have picked up 0.22 PPG on a 0W 2D 7L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Faisaly FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 games (0.22 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Faisaly FC's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 0.33 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Abha's record when hosting Al-Faisaly FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
2
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Abha 0-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 67%, Al-Faisaly FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Abha) and 67% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Abha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Abha's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Abha's recent games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Abha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Abha 0-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.28 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Abha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 33% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 35%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 56%, Al-Faisaly FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 0.78 PPG against 0.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.