Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zenit host FC Krasnodar at Gazprom Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gazprom Arena, Zenit have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gazprom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Zenit are significantly better at Gazprom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Krasnodar stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zenit at 2.50 PPG versus FC Krasnodar's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Zenit have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while FC Krasnodar have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Zenit winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zenit and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Zenit in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
FC Krasnodar in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 43% versus FC Krasnodar 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 47% | FC Krasnodar 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 1.32 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.096 / defence 0.738 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.139 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.073. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Zenit games / 53 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 46% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 26%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | FC Krasnodar 3.85. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 30% | FC Krasnodar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 46% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Zenit 1.32 / FC Krasnodar 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.096 / def 0.738 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.139 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Zenit (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FC Krasnodar xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Zenit vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Zenit 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Zenit vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Zenit vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 46% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zenit and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and FC Krasnodar?
Record (9 meetings): Zenit 6W | Draws 2 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Zenit and FC Krasnodar in?
Zenit (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zenit's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.55
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.22
0.90
FC Krasnodar xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zenit and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Zenit and 0.90 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Zenit have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 35W 12D 6L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 36W 11D 6L from 53 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zenit on 2.21 PPG, FC Krasnodar on 2.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zenit have posted 2.46 PPG from 26 outings (20W 4D 2L).
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 15W 8D 3L from 26 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.02 scored and 0.74 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against FC Krasnodar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; FC Krasnodar in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 35W 12D 6L in their last 53 games (2.21 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 36W 11D 6L in their last 53 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or FC Krasnodar away?
Zenit's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.46 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Zenit or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and FC Krasnodar runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Zenit won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zenit's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zenit
3
Draws
1
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 6, FC Krasnodar have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Zenit 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and FC Krasnodar?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 46%, FC Krasnodar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zenit) and 50% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Zenit's recent matches and 50% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zenit's recent games and 50% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 1.32 xG and FC Krasnodar 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.10 / defence 0.74 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 46% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 26%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 47%, FC Krasnodar 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.21 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.