Zenit 3-0 Arsenal Tula – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zenit vs Arsenal Tula encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Arsenal Tula travel to Saint-Petersburg Stadium to take on Zenit. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zenit stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Zenit have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arsenal Tula — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal Tula's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Zenit are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zenit register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Arsenal Tula in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zenit, 1 for Arsenal Tula and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Arsenal Tula winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zenit in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Arsenal Tula in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zenit 81% and Arsenal Tula 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zenit 62% | Arsenal Tula 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 2.69 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.616 / defence 1.141 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.809 / defence 1.631. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.232. Zenit carry an above-average attack strength of 1.616 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal Tula bring a strong defensive rating of 1.631 — this is suppressing Zenit's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Zenit games / 21 Arsenal Tula games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 69% | Draw 18% | Arsenal Tula 13%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Arsenal Tula 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 80% | Arsenal Tula 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Arsenal Tula | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 69% | Draw 18% | Arsenal Tula 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 64% | xG Zenit 2.69 / Arsenal Tula 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.616 / def 1.141 | Arsenal Tula attack 0.809 / def 1.631 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Zenit (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Arsenal Tula xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Arsenal Tula kick off?
Zenit vs Arsenal Tula kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Arsenal Tula?
Zenit 3 - 0 Arsenal Tula.
Where is Zenit vs Arsenal Tula being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs Arsenal Tula part of?
Zenit vs Arsenal Tula is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 69% chance of winning, Arsenal Tula a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Arsenal Tula?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Zenit and Arsenal Tula will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Arsenal Tula have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Arsenal Tula?
Record (1 meetings): Zenit 0W | Draws 0 | Arsenal Tula 1W.
What form are Zenit and Arsenal Tula in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zenit's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Arsenal Tula's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal Tula's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.68
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Zenit xG
Total xG
3.83
1.14
Arsenal Tula xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
7%
14.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
1%
114.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Arsenal Tula?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Zenit and Arsenal Tula expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Zenit and 1.14 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Arsenal Tula?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit come into this having played 21 games, going 13W 6D 2L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal Tula sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Arsenal Tula — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zenit's home form reads 9W 1D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — Zenit are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arsenal Tula have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Arsenal Tula are on 1.14 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Arsenal Tula in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Arsenal Tula
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Arsenal Tula in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 13W 6D 2L in their last 21 games (2.14 PPG), while Arsenal Tula have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Arsenal Tula away?
Zenit's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.55 PPG; Arsenal Tula away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Arsenal Tula runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Zenit
0
Draws
1
Arsenal Tula
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Arsenal Tula?
From 2 meetings on record, Zenit have won 1, Arsenal Tula have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Arsenal Tula last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Zenit 3-0 Arsenal Tula.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zenit at 82%, Arsenal Tula at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Zenit and 73% for Arsenal Tula. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal Tula in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Arsenal Tula away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Arsenal Tula?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Zenit's games and 64% of Arsenal Tula's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs Arsenal Tula usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Zenit's matches and 73% of Arsenal Tula's.
Do Zenit and Arsenal Tula tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Arsenal Tula in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Arsenal Tula.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Arsenal Tula 3-0 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.69 xG and Arsenal Tula 1.14 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal Tula landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.62 / defence 1.14 against Arsenal Tula attack 0.81 / defence 1.63, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 69% | Draw 18% | Arsenal Tula 13%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 62%, Arsenal Tula 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Zenit (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.