Ural 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Rubin at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ural stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ural are significantly better at Ekaterinburg Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Rubin have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Rubin have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ural at 0.90 PPG versus Rubin's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ural, 1 for Rubin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Ural winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ural in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rubin in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 46% versus Rubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 54% | Rubin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.25 xG and Rubin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.854 / defence 1.289 | Rubin attack 0.885 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.081. Data: 43 Ural games / 13 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Rubin 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ural 60% | Rubin 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Ural 1.25 / Rubin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.854 / def 1.289 | Rubin attack 0.885 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rubin xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Rubin kick off?
Ural vs Rubin kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Rubin?
Ural 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Ural vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Rubin part of?
Ural vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 36% chance of winning, Rubin a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ural and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Rubin?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 1W | Draws 0 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Ural and Rubin in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.85x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ural xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
Rubin xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ural and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ural and 1.23 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ural come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rubin sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.23 PPG, Rubin on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ural's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rubin have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Rubin in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Rubin have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Rubin away?
Rubin's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ural or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rubin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2021, when Rubin won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Rubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Rubin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Rubin 1-1 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 60%, Rubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ural and 60% for Rubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin in 40%; Ural have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ural's recent matches and 40% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ural's matches and 60% of Rubin's.
Do Ural and Rubin tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rubin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Ural 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Ural 0-1 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.25 xG and Rubin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ural fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Rubin attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 36% | Draw 28% | Rubin 36%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 54%, Rubin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.23 PPG, Rubin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.