Rubin 1-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Rubin welcome Baltika to Ak Bars Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Rubin have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ak Bars Arena, Rubin have gone 1W 3D 3L this season (7 games, 0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baltika — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's away record: 0W 0D 6L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rubin at 1.10 PPG versus Baltika's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Rubin trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Baltika trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 50% versus Baltika 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 58% | Baltika 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.14 xG and Baltika 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.629 / defence 1.256 | Baltika attack 0.762 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.118. Rubin's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Rubin games / 12 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 36% | Draw 31% | Baltika 32%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Baltika 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rubin as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 57% | Baltika 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 36% | Draw 31% | Baltika 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Rubin 1.14 / Baltika 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.629 / def 1.256 | Baltika attack 0.762 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Rubin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Baltika xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Baltika kick off?
Rubin vs Baltika kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Baltika?
Rubin 1 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Rubin vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Baltika part of?
Rubin vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 36% chance of winning, Baltika a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rubin and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Baltika?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rubin and Baltika in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Baltika (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.63x the league average against Baltika's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.18
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
Baltika xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rubin and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rubin and 1.07 for Baltika, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rubin come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 4D 5L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baltika sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rubin on 1.08 PPG, Baltika on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rubin's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Baltika have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baltika's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rubin are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Baltika in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Baltika have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Baltika away?
Rubin's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 0.83 PPG; Baltika away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rubin's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rubin
0
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Baltika?
From 4 meetings on record, Rubin have won 3, Baltika have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baltika 0-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Baltika?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, Baltika 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Rubin) and 50% (Baltika). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rubin have failed to score in 50% of games; Baltika in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 50% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rubin's matches and 50% of Baltika's.
Do Rubin and Baltika tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baltika in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rubin edge out Baltika 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Baltika 1-0 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.14 xG and Baltika 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baltika landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.63 / defence 1.26 against Baltika attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 36% | Draw 31% | Baltika 32%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 58%, Baltika 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Baltika's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rubin 1.08 PPG, Baltika 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.