Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ural at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Krylia Sovetov at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Ural are significantly better at Ekaterinburg Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Krylia Sovetov are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ural register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Krylia Sovetov in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Ural have won 1, Krylia Sovetov 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 45% versus Krylia Sovetov 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 53% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.46 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.990 / defence 1.355 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.914 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.014. Data: 51 Ural games / 51 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 38% | Draw 33% | Krylia Sovetov 29%. Fair-value odds: Ural 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Krylia Sovetov 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ural at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Krylia Sovetov (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ural offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Ural 60% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 38% | Draw 33% | Krylia Sovetov 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Ural 1.46 / Krylia Sovetov 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.990 / def 1.355 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.914 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Ural (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Ural 1 - 2 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Ural vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 38% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ural the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ural and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (5 meetings): Ural 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in?
Ural (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.99x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ural Win
38%
2.61
33%
3.05
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Ural xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
7%
14.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ural and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ural and 1.25 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Ural have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 11D 25L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 16W 14D 21L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ural on 1.10 PPG, Krylia Sovetov on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ural have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (9W 4D 12L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 4D 15L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ural are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.35 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 15W 11D 25L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Ural's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.24 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Krylia Sovetov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ural's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 56%, Krylia Sovetov 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ural and 68% for Krylia Sovetov. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 32% of games; Krylia Sovetov in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ural's games and 64% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ural's matches and 68% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do Ural and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Krylia Sovetov defy the odds to beat Ural 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Ural 1-2 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.46 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.99 / defence 1.35 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 38% | Draw 33% | Krylia Sovetov 29%, with Ural to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 53%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ural 1.10 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.