Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 52%, yet in-form Rubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rubin arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Krylia Sovetov 1W, Rubin 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Rubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 68% versus Rubin 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 68% | Rubin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.56 xG and Rubin 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.077 / defence 1.004 | Rubin attack 0.731 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.209. Data: 52 Krylia Sovetov games / 22 Rubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Rubin 4.76. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rubin (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 70% | Rubin 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.56 / Rubin 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.077 / def 1.004 | Rubin attack 0.731 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rubin xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Rubin.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 52% chance of winning, Rubin a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Rubin will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Record (3 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 1W | Draws 1 | Rubin 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Rubin (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.08) and Rubin's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.73x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.71
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.45
0.89
Rubin xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.89 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 8L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.45 for Rubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.91 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rubin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Rubin have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Rubin away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 2.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Rubin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, Rubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Rubin last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-0 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 73%, Rubin 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Krylia Sovetov) and 36% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 46%; Rubin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Rubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 27% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 36% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Rubin tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Rubin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Rubin 2-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.56 xG and Rubin 0.89 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Rubin attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 68%, Rubin 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Rubin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.50 PPG, Rubin 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.