Krylia Sovetov 2-0 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 52%, yet in-form Rubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Arena plays host to Krylia Sovetov versus Rubin in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Krylia Sovetov have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rubin's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Rubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rubin arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Krylia Sovetov 1–2 Rubin — a Rubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 68% versus Rubin 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 68% | Rubin 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.56 xG and Rubin 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.077 / defence 1.004 | Rubin attack 0.731 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.209. Rubin's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Krylia Sovetov's last 52 games and Rubin's last 22.
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.91 | Draw 3.71 | Rubin 4.87. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rubin (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Krylia Sovetov 70% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.56 / Rubin 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.077 / def 1.004 | Rubin attack 0.731 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Rubin xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin FAQs
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov 2 - 0 Rubin.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 52% chance of winning, Rubin a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.08) and Rubin's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rubin's attack (0.73x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Krylia Sovetov's last 52 games and Rubin's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.71
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.45
0.89
Rubin xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.89 for Rubin, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 8L across 22 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Krylia Sovetov against 1.45 for Rubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 6W 4D 1L from their last 11 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rubin's away record stands at 5W 2D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.91 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rubin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
Krylia Sovetov (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Rubin have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Rubin away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 2.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Rubin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
2
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Rubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Rubin 0-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Rubin?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 73%, Rubin 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Krylia Sovetov) and 36% (Rubin).
On the defensive side: Rubin in 46%; Rubin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Krylia Sovetov vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 27% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 36% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 64% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Rubin 2-0 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.56 xG and Rubin 0.89 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Rubin attack 0.73 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 52% | Draw 27% | Rubin 21%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 68%, Rubin 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Rubin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Krylia Sovetov 1.50 PPG, Rubin 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Rubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.