Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Krylia Sovetov welcome Zenit to Solidarnost Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Krylia Sovetov — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 5W 2D 3L at Solidarnost Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 4W 4D 1L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Krylia Sovetov) versus 2.10 (Zenit). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Krylia Sovetov, 1 for Zenit and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Zenit winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Zenit in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 47% and Zenit 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 42% | Zenit 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Zenit 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.061 / defence 1.124 | Zenit attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.179. Data: 19 Krylia Sovetov games / 20 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Zenit 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zenit are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zenit offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 40% | Zenit 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.20 / Zenit 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.061 / def 1.124 | Zenit attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Zenit (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Zenit xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Zenit.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 34% chance of winning, Zenit a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Record (1 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.06) and Zenit's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.41
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Zenit xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.25 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 8W 4D 7L from 19 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 2L across 19 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Zenit's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.42 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 79%.
Defensively: Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Zenit in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 games (1.47 PPG), while Zenit have gone 12W 5D 2L in their last 19 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Zenit away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 2.12 PPG; Zenit away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zenit in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Zenit won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
6
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Zenit have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zenit 2-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 38%, Zenit 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Krylia Sovetov) and 38% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 75% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 38% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Zenit tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zenit in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Krylia Sovetov and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG and Zenit 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Zenit attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 42%, Zenit 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.