Krylia Sovetov 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Krylia Sovetov face CSKA Moscow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Samara Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.80 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
It is worth noting that CSKA Moscow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 54% versus CSKA Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 54% | CSKA Moscow 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 0.85 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.843 / defence 1.021 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.085 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.304. CSKA Moscow's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Krylia Sovetov games / 44 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 19% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 48%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | CSKA Moscow 2.08. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 40% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 19% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Krylia Sovetov 0.85 / CSKA Moscow 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 0.843 / def 1.021 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.085 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.45
CSKA Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 19% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 48% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (6 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 5W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 0.84x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.08x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
19%
5.33
33%
3.00
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.29
1.45
CSKA Moscow xG
5.33
19%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
4%
22.62
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.45 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 14W 11D 19L from 44 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 10L across 44 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 8W 9D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.77 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 19W 15D 10L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.55 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
3
Draws
7
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 54%, CSKA Moscow 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Krylia Sovetov) and 54% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; Krylia Sovetov have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 64% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 54% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 1-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 0.85 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.45 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 19% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 48%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 54%, CSKA Moscow 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.