Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Krylia Sovetov meet at Fakel Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fakel have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fakel have posted 0W 3D 3L at Fakel Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fakel lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Fakel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fakel half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 46% versus Krylia Sovetov 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 54% | Krylia Sovetov 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.78 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.603 / defence 1.292 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.069 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.305. Fakel's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Fakel games / 41 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 13% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 59%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 7.69 | Draw 3.57 | Krylia Sovetov 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 33% | Krylia Sovetov 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fakel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 13% | Draw 28% | Krylia Sovetov 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Fakel 0.78 / Krylia Sovetov 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.603 / def 1.292 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.069 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Krylia Sovetov xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Fakel Stadium.
Where is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Fakel Stadium.
What competition is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 13% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 59% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fakel and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (7 meetings): Fakel 2W | Draws 2 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fakel's attack rating (0.60) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.07x) against Fakel's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
13%
7.75
28%
3.52
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.59
1.80
Krylia Sovetov xG
7.75
13%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
2%
46.99
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fakel and 1.80 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fakel come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fakel's home form reads 0W 3D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fakel are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.36 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 2W 6D 3L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 0.60 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Fakel
2
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
From 7 meetings on record, Fakel have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 20%, Krylia Sovetov 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fakel) and 40% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 40%; Fakel have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Fakel's recent matches and 60% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fakel's recent games and 40% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.