CSKA Moscow 0-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Fakel.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
CSKA Moscow and Fakel meet at VEB Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's home record at VEB Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fakel have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. CSKA Moscow's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Fakel's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, CSKA Moscow have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Fakel managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both CSKA Moscow and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fakel — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 60% versus Fakel 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 55% | Fakel 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 2.56 xG and Fakel 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.309 / defence 0.763 | Fakel attack 0.949 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.264. CSKA Moscow carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing CSKA Moscow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. CSKA Moscow's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 CSKA Moscow games / 42 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 71% | Draw 19% | Fakel 10%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Fakel 10.00. The model has a clear lean to CSKA Moscow (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 40% | Fakel 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 71% | Draw 19% | Fakel 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 57% | xG CSKA Moscow 2.56 / Fakel 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.309 / def 0.763 | Fakel attack 0.949 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fakel xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Fakel kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
CSKA Moscow 0 - 0 Fakel.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 71% chance of winning, Fakel a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
Record (4 meetings): CSKA Moscow 3W | Draws 1 | Fakel 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Fakel in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Fakel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Fakel's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.95x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
71%
1.40
19%
5.35
10%
10.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
3.47
0.92
Fakel xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
10.10
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
8%
12.88
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
130.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.92 for Fakel, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Fakel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow come into this having played 42 games, going 19W 14D 9L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fakel sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (9W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
CSKA Moscow's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Fakel have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Fakel in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Fakel in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 19W 14D 9L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Fakel have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Fakel away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.90 PPG; Fakel away: 0.80 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fakel in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fakel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
2
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Fakel have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Fakel 0-1 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Fakel?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 55%, Fakel 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (CSKA Moscow) and 50% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fakel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 45% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 50% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Fakel tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fakel in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at CSKA Moscow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 13, as CSKA Moscow and Fakel drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 2.56 xG and Fakel 0.92 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 2.6 short of their projected output. Fakel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.31 / defence 0.76 against Fakel attack 0.95 / defence 1.48, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 71% | Draw 19% | Fakel 10%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 55%, Fakel 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fakel's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.