Vizela 2-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vizela at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Portimonense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Vizela against 0.60 for Portimonense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Vizela winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 40% versus Portimonense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 45% | Portimonense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.58 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.908 / defence 1.011 | Portimonense attack 0.902 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.200. Data: 40 Vizela games / 40 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Portimonense 3.85. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 60% | Portimonense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Vizela 1.58 / Portimonense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.908 / def 1.011 | Portimonense attack 0.902 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Vizela (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Portimonense xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Portimonense kick off?
Vizela vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Vizela 2 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Vizela vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Portimonense part of?
Vizela vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 49% chance of winning, Portimonense a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vizela and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
Record (4 meetings): Vizela 2W | Draws 2 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Portimonense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.91) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.90x) against Vizela's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.99
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Portimonense xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Vizela and 1.09 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 12W 9D 19L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 23L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Vizela against 0.98 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 2D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.78 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 11W 6D 23L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Portimonense away?
Vizela's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.15 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Vizela or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Portimonense in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Portimonense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Portimonense 0-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Portimonense?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Vizela) and 30% (Portimonense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 40% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Portimonense in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vizela's recent matches and 30% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vizela's recent games and 40% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Portimonense tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portimonense defy the odds to beat Vizela 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Vizela 2-3 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.58 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Portimonense outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Portimonense attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 45%, Portimonense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.12 PPG, Portimonense 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.