Vizela 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Famalicao at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vizela vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vizela and Famalicao meet at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 March 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela at Estádio Do Vizela this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Famalicao have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Famalicao arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 62% versus Famalicao 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 46% | Famalicao 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.811 / defence 1.215 | Famalicao attack 0.900 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.276. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing Vizela's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Vizela games / 26 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Famalicao 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 40% | Famalicao 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Vizela 1.19 / Famalicao 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.811 / def 1.215 | Famalicao attack 0.900 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.016 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Famalicao xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Famalicao kick off?
Vizela vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Vizela 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Vizela vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Famalicao part of?
Vizela vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 29% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vizela and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
Record (1 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.81x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.90x) against Vizela's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.16
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.59
1.40
Famalicao xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Vizela and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vizela and 1.40 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Vizela have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 5W 10D 11L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 6W 9D 11L from 26 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Vizela against 1.04 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vizela are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 5W 10D 11L in their last 26 games (0.96 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Famalicao away?
Vizela's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.08 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Vizela or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Famalicao in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
4
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Famalicao have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Famalicao 3-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 54%, Famalicao 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Vizela) and 69% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Vizela's games and 62% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vizela vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Vizela's recent games and 69% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Famalicao tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 27, as Vizela and Famalicao drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.40 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Famalicao attack 0.90 / defence 1.45, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 29% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 46%, Famalicao 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.96 PPG, Famalicao 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.