SC Braga 1-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Belenenses make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Braga to face SC Braga in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
SC Braga (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Braga, SC Braga have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Belenenses have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward SC Braga. A 1.00 PPG lead over Belenenses (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
SC Braga — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Belenenses — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 54% versus Belenenses 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 54% | Belenenses 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.85 xG and Belenenses 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.405 / defence 0.904 | Belenenses attack 0.582 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.374. SC Braga carry an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 SC Braga games / 13 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 63% | Draw 24% | Belenenses 13%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Belenenses 7.69. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 57% | Belenenses 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 63% | Draw 24% | Belenenses 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG SC Braga 1.85 / Belenenses 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.405 / def 0.904 | Belenenses attack 0.582 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Belenenses xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Belenenses kick off?
SC Braga vs Belenenses kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Belenenses?
SC Braga 1 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is SC Braga vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Belenenses part of?
SC Braga vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 63% chance of winning, Belenenses a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SC Braga and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Braga and Belenenses in?
SC Braga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Belenenses (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Braga's attack rating (1.41) and Belenenses's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Belenenses's attack (0.58x) against SC Braga's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.11
13%
7.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.58
0.72
Belenenses xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
7.89
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
50.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.72 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Belenenses?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Braga's recent record stands at 6W 4D 3L from 13 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 7L across 13 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Belenenses heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — SC Braga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Belenenses's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Braga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.54 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Belenenses in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 games (1.69 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Belenenses away?
SC Braga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.33 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.50 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Belenenses been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Belenenses in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SC Braga
0
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 2, Belenenses have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Belenenses 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Belenenses?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (SC Braga) and 17% (Belenenses) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Braga) and 17% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Belenenses in 33%; Belenenses in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SC Braga's recent matches and 17% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SC Braga's recent games and 17% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Braga and Belenenses tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Belenenses 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Belenenses 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.85 xG and Belenenses 0.72 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.41 / defence 0.90 against Belenenses attack 0.58 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 63% | Draw 24% | Belenenses 13%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 54%, Belenenses 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Belenenses's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.